Tokmanni - undervärderad värdeaktie?

Thank you Antti for your notes!

Are you familiar with DollarStores private labels? How much of their sales come from private label?

This sounds very promising. I wonder if we´re going to see more acquisitions like ClickShoes, which increase the product range, or acquisition of smaller low cost chains?

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The private label accounts about 25 % of Dollarstore’s sales and about 30 % of Tokmanni’s, and focus is to increase that level.

CEO Mika Rautiainen comment on the CMD that in Finland Tokmanni is not looking further retail chain acquisitions. In Finland, Tokmanni will grow by opening new stores. However, it is possible that Tokmanni buys some brands like they did last year when they bought Catmandoo, which is supporting Tokmanni’s clothing sales. I assume that in other markets they are open to M&A.

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Had a discussion with @arttu.heikura about Tokmanni in light of the recent strategy update and internationalisation plans! :shopping_cart:

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Här är en analys av Tokmanni. :slight_smile:

Är framgång i sikte med hjälp av Dollarstore?

Tokmanni’s Q4 report was in line with expectations in terms of operational items. The integration of Dollarstore has progressed well and the company has shown the first concrete signs of synergy benefits. We see a slight reduction in the company’s risk level due to a faster-than-expected decrease in the debt position and positive integration news.

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Tokmanni rapporterar sina resultat för första kvartalet på fredag omkring kl. 8:00 och här är analytikerns tankar kring detta. :slight_smile:

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Pinfärska tankar ang. Tokmannis Q1:a
“Bumps in the growth story”:

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I den här artikeln gjord av analytiker nämns självklart också Tokmanni.

Tokmanni’s quarter started weakly

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Hur gick det för butikerna i maj? :point_down:

The target market for Kesko’s daily goods trade, Tokmanni and Lindex (department store and hypermarket chains) increased by 6% in May to 797 MEUR. Food products continued to grow steadily by about 5%, while the durable goods market increased by almost 9%. Within durable goods, growth was split between clothing, up 9.4 %, and home and leisure, up 8.5 %. According to our estimate, the market development of durable goods has been supported by the warm weather in May and demand that moved from the weak April. Kespro’s Foodservice market decreased by one per cent, while delivery days remained at the level of the comparison period.

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Analyst Heikura’s Comment on Tokmanni’s New Announcements. :slight_smile:

Tokmanni announced new store openings in Denmark during 2024-25. Considering the objectives stated in connection with the strategy update the announced store openings were expected, and thus do not cause any forecast changes.

Här är en färsk analys av Tokmanni. :slight_smile:

Tokmanni’s Q2 result was soft in many respects, as indicated by the profit warning issued by the company in July. During the quarter, the company faced challenges in each of its markets, resulting in a decline in like-for-like sales. This, together with cost pressures, resulted in the Group’s profitability being lower than in the comparison period. The recently revised guidance was naturally repeated and the company’s outlook for the rest of the year looks challenging to us. We consider the valuation of the stock to be quite moderate and believe that the stock offers investors a sufficiently attractive risk/reward ratio to compensate for the market uncertainties. We reiterate our Accumulate recommendation and EUR 13.0 target price.

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Inderes’ Arttu Heikura and Isa Hudd discussed the company’s Q2 results and its future prospects. :slight_smile:

Content:

00:00 Intro
00:11 Soft Q2
01:18 Lack of organic growth
01:36 Dollarstore assortment
03:11 Dollatstore integration
04:02 Margins
05:02 Valuation
06:21 Recommendation

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Här ännu kommentarer angående hur den nu i höst höjda mervärdesskatten påverkar Tokmanni + att vi trots det “motiga helhetsläget” anser aktien vara köpvärd.

Att momsen höjs är en diksussion i sig (och detta ej ett politiskt forum, men kan inte annat än sucka)… och måste tydligen skriva detta.

Alla M&A’s tar sin tid, men kan inte hjälpa att undra, om detta ser ut att vara lite krångligt, dvs Dollarstore? Om jag inte missminner mig var det inte så mkt gnissel gällande Click shoes delen? Eller, correct me if I’m wrong…

Att segmentet “billighetsbodar med brett sortiment” är på stor frammarsch har knappast undgått någon… men i ngt skede kommer säkert ytterligare konsolideringar att ske, kunde man anta… Eller? (Detta nu mest Isa som drar ur hatten). Men om man fortsätter på Tokmanni-Dollarstore, Europris-Ö&B, Puuilo - Hurrikaani linjen är detta inte otänkbart.

Var passar Biltema, Motonet, Jula, Classe, Normal osv in i bilden? En personlig favorit i M&A pusslet är: när köps Halpa-Halli upp av någon av dessa? (Puuilo kunde vara en kandidat…)

@Lillen och @Dividendseglaren : hur tänker ni? Äger ni? Vem är den vinnande hästen i billigbodsracet?

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