Revenio Group 👀

[Juha_Kinnunen]

Many thanks for your questions, but it’s just Juha

@börsen84

• How are Revenio’s new products, such as the renewed Maia microperimeter and the iCare ILLUME screening solution, expected to impact the company’s market position and earnings growth in the coming years? What are the key competitive advantages of these products?

Well, the honest answer is that we dont know yet, but here are my basic assumptions.

As far as I know, new Maia isn’t going to be groundbreaking, just new model due to end of life. Certainly it is hoped to be somewhat improved in everyway (including new components), but I’m not expecting it to be a significant growth driver in the future as it is somewhat a niche product. High-end quality product nevertheless.

However, it will have an impact after launch because currently Revenio hasn’t been able to sell any solution and there has been demand. I suppose roughly >5 MEUR of annual revenue with solid gross margins could be a good guess when it comes to earnings - but we dont have a model going to product levels, as they aren’t published. So we’ll see.

When it comes to iCare ILLUME screening solution it’s very interesting to see, especially when combined with AI later on. It should be a solid end-to-end solution, Revenio (or iCare) have a strong brand and plenty of loyal customers - and the early indications have been promising. However, it’s difficult to estimate how the market will develop. AI market is currently in the US due to lack of reimbursements in most of Europe, and I believe that US market will be paving the way for the rest of the world. Another Finnish company Optomed just got FDA approval for hand-held fundus camera combined with AEYE Health AI, and they are currently launching and looking for a breakthrough in US primary care. We’ll see how it goes and how the market responds in a new area and to a hand-held. Very difficult to compare with others or think about the market position, as the market is still forming.

Currently I believe that ILLUME (with AI) will be a significant growth and earnings driver over the long-term, but I’m not expecting much in the coming 1-3 years. Typically these things take plenty of time in a conservative industry, but maybe it’s different this time.

@börsen84

1. Could you elaborate on the risks associated with Revenio’s FDA approval process in the United States and how these risks might affect the company’s earnings development? How has the company prepared for potential delays or failures in the approval process?

FDA is difficult to predict nowdays, and certainly there are significant costs related to the process (see Q1 update). But in my opinion the risks are still limited, and not much is priced in when it comes to the new solutions. Certainly failure would weaken the growth outlook for the coming years, and if significant, could hinder Revenio access to market and therefore weaken company’s position also going forward (competitors solidifying market share before it). But I would still look at this more as an opportunity for new market areas and overall solutions and remind that great majority of Revenio’s current business isn’t tight to this.

Interesting times. New markets are forming and old ones are changing. Still I would expect the change to be more like an evoluation than a revolution - even with AI coming into play.

Hope these ramblings were helpful, wrote without notes so mistakes are possible