Investerarnas kafferum

Hunden är en 4-årig tik av rasen Lancashire heeler

Officiellt heter hon något helt annat, men lystrar till namnet Nellis. Ibland även Nellukka och vid inkallning och arbete Nellurei :heart:.

Det är min hund, men om du frågar henne, dvs Nellis, så är det tvärtom :rofl:

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I kväll, i kväll smäller det igen från vår studio i Stockholm! Dags för Uppesittarkväll!! Denna gång gästas programmet av ingen mindre än @Juha_Kinnunen :partying_face: :star_struck:!!

Sändningen startar kl. 20:00 svensk tid. Direktlänk till programmet:


:heart_eyes:

Tack för informationen!

Är det inte så att hunden liknar sin ägare? :slight_smile:

Tänker du något om detta?

Själv vet jag inte vad jag ska säga.


Greetings after a prolonged silence,

The end is near, but I just mean that my time in Stockholm is coming to an end. So nothing dramatic, though I might think that world is ending looking at the valuations of some Helsinki Stock Exchange companies.

It has been an interesting 2,5 months to say the least. It has also been 26 days since I wrote about my endeavors, or lack of them. Mostly this is due to the earnings season that always demands all your time and focus, but there were some other difficulties also. But no one wants to hear complaining, so let’s focus on the positive.

Lessons learned

So many that I still don’t have time to go through all of them. But in a nutshell: Sweden is a completely different beast than Finland. We need to sharpen our focus and improve our offering to take over the Swedish market. It will be a long and probably a rocky road, but eventually we’ll do it. Just because independent equity research is needed, and others don’t seem to be inclined to offer it. Good things take time, but I believe that we a have good foundation to build on.

Many thanks for @lucas.mattsson and @christoffer.jennel for working with me here. I don’t know if I was able to help you guys, but I certainly learned a lot during my visit.

I still have Monday left at the Stockholm office, but thanks for everyone I have been working with here. It has been my pleasure. I’ll check out the new office on my next journey :slight_smile:

Stockholm

It’s a nice place. A big city that really doesn’t feel that big outside of the city center. Plenty of things to do, and I wish we had more free time as a family. Very “child friendly” city in general, which is a significant factor nowadays. Nice and polite people in general. Disappointments were the unreliable public transport system (I guess my expectations were too high) and the healthcare system (for us “foreigners”).

All in all, a very positive experience of the city. We’ll be back, or at least I’ll be back.

Investments in Sweden

I really thought that I’ll have plenty of time to research companies (outside of my coverage and their peers), but I was completely wrong. I’m still holding on to Kinnevik that was my first investment here. I was hoping to visit the CMD, but unfortunately a company that I cover changed its earnings day to that date. Still haven’t had time to research the portfolio, so I’m still in the dark whether the investment makes sense or not. Either I’ll do the research and find the conviction to own it or I’ll sell it quite soon. We’ll see. So far it has been +/-0 %.

I invested a small amount in Surgical Science lately. It’s starter to motivate me to do the work. Maybe I’ll have a chance to do that in the coming weeks, as I should have a holiday. Naturally I’m down already :smiley: In addition I still own some shares in Investor. Steady as it goes.

Q3 earnings season

It was quite a ride that started with a wave of negative profit warnings. In general it is a very challenging period in Helsinki, but Q3 wasn’t as bad as one might think based on the stock market reactions.

  • Administer: Q3 report was in-line with our estimates, 2025 estimates down
  • Aspocomp: Q3 result was a disappointment, but outlook improved
  • Bittium: Q3 result was a lackluster, but no major changes in the big picture
  • Detection Technology: Q3 result was better than expected, outlook was a disappointment
  • Fondia: Q3 report was in-line with our estimates
  • Fortum: no significant surprises in Q3 report
  • Etteplan: poor Q3 as expected, long-term case intact
  • Revenio: Q3 was a disappointment, but no real reasons to worry
  • Talenom: Q3 was a bit better than expected, but Mr. Market has lost all hope
  • Optomed: Q3 somewhat in-line with expectations, positive development in general
  • Panostaja is in a different reporting cycle, so it’ll report later

Naturally I haven’t been in Finland now, but I do mostly interact with Finnish companies and with Finnish investors. It seems to be a weird period in Finland. I have been an analyst for some 20 years, and it’s difficult to remember more pessimistic atmosphere regarding the local stock market. It kind of feels like the post tech bubble (2000 version), when everyone was just depressed and licking their wounds. Many new investors came in at the top (I was one of them) and left after the crash (I wasn’t one of them). Those you stuck around were rewarded greatly later on, but of course that’s a guarantee for the future.

Now those actively who invest tend to focus more and more on US where the returns have been strong. Momentum is the key in the short-term, but it’s not my game. I have done my share of chasing returns. I try to buy stocks when the expectations and valuations are low, and I’m not in hurry. So Helsinki it is for my stock picking (I do have indexes in US). I see a lot of value also in the companies that I cover, and I have unusually high amount of positive recommendations. We’ll see whether I’m wrong or Finnish Mr. Market is actually too depressed, but I would recommend those of you investing internationally to take a look in Finland. It just might surprise you.

When it comes to Swedish market, it seems like there are similar situations behind the “big ones”. So I’m quite sure there are lots of opportunities in small- and midcap -segments here also, but I’m starting to accept that I just don’t have the time to research them. Wouldn’t it be great if there would be high quality independent research widely available? :sunglasses:

Have a nice weekend and good investing!

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A big thank you @Juha_Kinnunen for your visit! I have definitely learned a lot from you, and I look forward to meet you soon again!

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What thoughts does this bring to mind?

Thank you in advance for sharing your thoughts! :slight_smile:


Okej, det här är normalt.

:upside_down_face:


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It’s kind of simple, really… :slight_smile:

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We are living in exciting times; this company, when announcing its quarterly results, is likely to move global markets…

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:tv: REKLAM!!! På söndag är det dags för #Uppesittarkväll :heart_eyes:! På agendan bl.a. djupdykning i Björn Borg aktien tillsammans med vår egen @lucas.mattsson och bolagets VD Henrik Bunge :partying_face::star_struck:! Även tips på hur du maxar shoppingen kring Black Friday och jul utlovas!

:popcorn:LIVE sändningen startar kl. 20:00 CET och du hittar den här, på länken nedan:
Uppesittarkväll 24/11 från Inderes Event Studio

Bilden? Återfanns vid telefonstädning, men fungerar utmärkt i sammanhanget: @lucas.mattsson och yours truly på vift i Stockholm :partying_face:! Bakom kameran världens bästa Jonathan Hagman :partying_face: medsläpad kollega och kameraman för dagen!

Önskar alla ett utmärkt veckoslut :partying_face: :tv: :heart:!!

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I think he had other requirements for the stock and didn’t always stick to them either.

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This young Finnish investor is absolutely incredible. :exploding_head:


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I found this meme on Twitter.

Or is this even a meme? :thinking:

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Här är något att fundera på för oss denna söndag…

:thinking:

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An interesting tweet about this fascinating company—nothing particularly new here, though. :slight_smile:

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Den här björnmarknad har tog så lång tid, att jag vet inte, vad jag kan tänka på det.

Men vad tycker du om den här hypercyckel?
Vad som händer 2025?

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Ett bra meddelande och en bra fråga. :slight_smile:

I många saker, men när det gäller makroekonomiska händelser, går det oftast helt tvärtom mot vad JAG har tänkt. Det känns som om jag alltid är sen med allt och inte riktigt hänger med i allt nytt, som till exempel innovationer.

Om jag var tvungen att gissa skulle jag säga att aktiemarknaden förblir ganska stabil – jag ser egentligen inga starka skäl för en stor uppgång eller nedgång. Det blir intressant att se hur Europas ekonomier och marknader utvecklas, och hur Kina agerar både ekonomiskt och på andra sätt. USA verkar däremot alltid ha en viss styrka.

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Ja, det är jätte spännande, vad som hände nu i USA. Trump är så oförutsägbar att det finns oändliga olika scenarier i framtiden.

Fen amerikanska regeringen tog på sig en större roll i ekonomin och tog på sig skulder i snabb takt efter finanskrisen. Det gav också bränsle till Trumps politik under det tidigare presidentskapet. Jag är inte så säkert att Trumps anhängare ängtligen får som de vill.

Jag också lysnade Lex podcast med Javier Milei.

Också intressant.

Har du tittade det? @börsen84 och @Isa_Hudd

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Jag funderar på Kina och Taiwan, sedan Mellanöstern – hur situationen där utvecklas framöver… och förstås även Ukraina, som ju är bekant för alla. I Japan fortsätter de gamla problemen, men inget verkar hända. I Afrika och Indien sker mycket i bakgrunden, men kanske kommer man prata mer om dem om några år.

Sydamerika hade stora förväntningar på sig redan för cirka 20 år sedan.

Jag kanske lyssnar på den där podden i helgen… tack för tipset!

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