Incap har en imponerande historia gällande både tillväxt, men framförallt lönsamhet. Bolagets slimmade operativa modell är det få som kan mäta sig med. Går detta att skala upp i större skala? Den största risken för bolaget är kundkoncentrationen, där ett litet antal kunder står för största delen av omsättningen. Är det ändå en aktie att lägga under julgranen ;)?
Analytiker Antti Viljakainen svarar:
Incap’s CMD was held a month ago. There were some excellent and useful slides. I recommend to go trough the materials. Here a few highlights that I did.
Concentrated customer structure
A concentrated customer structure is typical for the industry. When a customer’s business starts to roll, the share of the contract manufacturer’s business grows rapidly.
Typically the customer relationships are long, even strategic, and the contract manufacturer is not easily changed which is one reason why winning new customers takes time. If I only quote right, CEO Otto Pukk said: "Incap is increasingly integrated in customers’ business processes, e.g. prototyping and product creation.”
Incap have customers from many industries, but a lot of the business is related to green energy and electrical mobility. Its biggest customer is Victron Energy. Incap does not report its customers but the company’s name has come up in several contexts.
Quality is important. Companies do not change EMS-suppliers easily because of price.
Acquisitions
Incap wants to accelerate growth with acquisitions. It is not interested in turnaround companies, the company to be bought should already be in good shape, compatible with the company culture and the purchase price reasonable.
Otto Pukk said that they are targeting geographical expansion in markets with a well-functioning operating environment (e.g., Germany and the USA).
Production plant network
Incap has four manufacturing units located in Estonia, Slovakia, Great Britain, and India which is kind of the heart of the company.
There has been a lot of discussion about the trend of localization. According to Incap it started before the supply chain problems of the pandemic era from the trade war and the pandemic only gave it more boost. For example in the USA, the Made in USA label is even more important. However it is still more talk than action, Pukk said.
Asia’s dominant share is driven by the historically lower cost level of the region than in developed economies. However, the cost dynamic has been shifting over the last decade and have resulted in new production and relocation of old production to more advantageous regions, like India and Vietnam.
Incap has done capacity investments in India and a third factory is will be ready by next year first quarter. It is important to remember that there are opportunities to increase production even without increasing the floor area, e.g. from 2 shifts to 3.
Ramping up production in the EMS industry is relatively straightforward and usually takes from three to six months, once needed machinery and equipment have been received.
Inventory
Incap’s operations are reasonably working capital intensive and especially during a period of strong organic growth, investments in inventories and thus in its own supply capacity/customer relationships is necessary both from a tactical and strategic perspective.
CFO Antti Pynnönen highlighted that Incap buys materials based on a firm customer purchase order and delivery forecasts. “The materials we have today is the business for tomorrow for Incap.”
Här finns en direktlänk till sändningen från Kapitalmarknadsdagen:
Omsättnings- och lönsamhetsmässigt levererade Incap än en gång toppsiffror för helåret 2022. På den negativa sidan ser man ett svällande lager och kassaflödesutmaningar. För 2023 guidar man för fortsatt hög tillväxt och lönsamhet, men varnar för en försämrad synlighet gällande efterfrågebilden, samt ett möjligt hårdnande klimat för slutkunderna. I Indien kör bolagets tredje fabrik snart i gång sin verksamhet. På inköpslistan: förvärv på lämplig marknad. Incaps vd Otto Pukk sammanfattar verksamhetsåret.
Omvänd vinstvarning från Incap
Intressant hur de olika aktörerna i branschen har det just nu. Inför rapportperioden flaggar Scanfil för bättre än väntat, Incap sämre.
I dag kvartalsrapport för NOTEs del:
Otto Pukk om Q1:an, vinstvarningen och hur han sover om natten:
Den som hellre tittar på engelska versionen:
Uppdaterad analys!
A few days ago Nordea started covering Incap. Plus 60 pages PDF to read. 
Incapin viktiga kundens roll minskar, men det är känt och det syns kanske alltför mycket i aktiekursen. Enligt mina egna tankar är Incap dock ett kvalitetsföretag, där många grundläggande aspekter är i mycket bra skick.
Företaget verkar vara snabb och smidig. Låga kostnader och hög lönsamhet, tillsammans med världens megatrender, stöder företagets framtid.
Naturligtvis finns det också risker, som förändringar i konkurrenssituationen, försämring av kundernas förhållanden och det faktum att jag tror att aktörerna inom denna bransch har ganska begränsad prissättningskraft.
Det här var mina enkla tankar om detta företag. Jag följer det med intresse, men äger det ännu inte. 
Nu omfattande analys ute! Läsvärd!!
Incap reported their Q2 result today. Incap’s largest customer announced that it would have to temporarily reduce its orders due to overstocking. Company’s focus has been on new customer acquisition, increasing sales to existing ones and opening up new opportunities through an acquisition in the USA. Incap’s CEO Otto Pukk interviewed by analyst Antti Viljakainen.
Här är en färsk och utmärkt nyhet om Incap.
We reiterate our EUR 12.00 target price and Accumulate recommendation for Incap. We made no changes to Incap’s near-term earnings estimates after the Q2 report. The inventory adjustment related to the largest customer depresses the company’s result to a clear downward trend at least in H2, but we do not consider the problem structural. Incap’s long-term strengths, i.e. excellent cost competitiveness and a light organization, have not disappeared and the company managed to carry out a promising acquisition in the US in July. We believe that Incap offers a good expected return for brave and patient investors at the current valuation level (2023e: EV/EBIT 9x).
Good reading for all interested in Incap.
This is an excellent piece - worth reading!
Utmärkt Tommi och Antti.
