Nokia - evig förlorare eller värdeaktie på uppgång?

Tråkigare aktie får man leta efter på Helsingfors-börsen. Nokia har väl närmast levererat en lång rad besvikelser de senaste +20 åren. Under den nya(ste) ledningen verkar det dock som det börjat synas ljus i tunneln; kanske t.o.m. någon slags turn-around i sikte.

Idag gjorde jag ett köp @4,35 €. Jag har inte rört denna position på flera år; senaste köpet gjort under €4. Men nu levererade Nokia ett så starkt resultat (både Q4/2022 och 2022), kombinerat med någon form av prisnedgång (YTD: -1,95% / 3m: -2,31% / 6m: -14,75% / 12m: -14,48 %) att jag helt enkelt inte kunde motstå frestelsen.

Svårt att se hur Nokia skulle vara dyr just nu. 2023 prognoser ~ P/E 10x, P/B 1.1x, dividend 4.1% och EV/EBIT 6.5x. Men om aktiekursen fortsätter att falla från denna nivå, så tror jag att jag kommer att fortsätta köpa. :popcorn:

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Du säger det som rubriken lyder ;): valuation is modest with improved performance :

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Yeah it is easy to agree that Nokia looks undervalued at the moment. The key question is what will be the catalyst or value driver that fixes the situation. Everybody can see those low multiples but for some reason investors are cautious that Nokia’s current earnings levels will hold up. Despite the fact that Nokia’s outlook and financial targets indicate that the comparable EBIT will still improve from current +3000 MEUR levels. All in all, interesting situation with the share and hard to see much downside if the earnings hold up.

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Pretty much my 2 cents as well. The markets have abandoned Nokia years ago, and seemingly no results are sufficient to rectify the situation. It might be that we’ll continue sideways for a long time still (my own guess), but indeed I think the upside (after a couple of more Q:s beating the forecasts) is larger & more likely than a substantial drop from the current valuation level.

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How will Nokia fare if the economy clearly weakens? When considering how fierce the competition is in Nokia’s fields of market. On the other hand, Huawei is facing major problems, which offers opportunities for Nokia. The company also has the “money” and possibilities, as it has technological expertise.

Feel free to answer my question briefly, although it may be challenging. I’m trying to understand the big picture better.

Thanks in advance for your answer! :pray:

(Sorry for always asking questions. :confused: )

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In the big picture Nokia’s markets are pretty stable and growing/declining in relation to telecom operators capex budgets (which are pretty stable).

For mobile networks Ericsson was expecting flat market during its CMD on December.

Nokia’s expectations for this decade look like this:

This is a comment from Nokia’s CEO from Q1 earnings call:

Market research firm Dell’Oro published their latest market forecast just a month ago and they are still expecting 1 % growth even though capex budgets are declining this year.

Nokia also reiterated its outlook for 2023 and is still guiding with the guidance midpoint stable earnings for this year. All in all, in a recession it would be really hard for Nokia to grow its earnings, but I think pretty stable development is still achievable. The stock is trading currently with 2023e P/E ratio of 9x so it seems that markets are already pricing in pretty steep decline in earnings. So if Nokia is able to roughly maintain its current adj. EBIT level of +3000 MEUR, it is pretty fair to say that the stock is very cheap at the moment.

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I appreciate how interestingly and comprehensibly you are able to explain these things. Thanks to you, I now have a better understanding of the whole picture.

I could imagine that Nokia is really cheap. Nokia has had a tendency to surprise both downwards and upwards, so it’s definitely not a sure case.

Thanks, Atte! :slight_smile: :pray:

(Of course, nothing is certain in investing.)

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Analyst @Atte_Riikola and analysis about Nokia.

I personally think that Nokia is somewhat inexpensive, but on the other hand, it doesn’t have very remarkable growth prospects in the near future.

Några små kändisar har nämnt Nokia på sin Twitter-kanal. Hälsningar till Eriksson! :smiley:

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