Kempower - EV fast-charging fairytale

Jag postade redan denna i en annan kedja, men värt att nämnas även här! I en artikel av David Flatbacke-Karlsson för Unga Aktiesparare, lyfter
Nordea förvaltaren fram 3 bolag på Helsingforsbörsen, där Kempower är ett av dem:

3 spännande aktier: “Kvalitet till rea” - Unga Aktiesparare

2 gillningar

I think it’s perfectly fine if a company makes significant investments for the future and profitability temporarily declines. However, I wonder how the company will manage to maintain a good level of profitability as competition intensifies and competitors evolve. How will the company succeed in the global market in the future? Even after this drop in stock price, can it still be considered cheap? :thinking:

1 gillning

That’s a very interesting question! From a competition perspective, I believe the market will concentrate among the top players, such as Tesla, Alpitronic and Kempower. There’s significant barriers to entry in this market why some companies will be left behind and only relatively small number of companies will dominate the market (compared to AC charging where there’s high number of players).

Margin levels could of course suffer along with shifts in demand. If the electrification of transportation slows down, that could force competitors to sell products for lower prices and weaker margins to fill their utilisation rates. However, there’s a limit to this coming from the profitability of charging manufacturers. Most are still unprofitable so they might not be able to push prices down too much. Kempower is probably the most profitable company in the industry with a differing product offering and is therefore favourably positioned to a potential price war.

Looking to the valuation, the stock is expensive with current earnings. One should take into account that the current earnings suffer from 2 large factory investments (US and Lahti2) which do not yet generate material revenue. If the sales growth guided by the company starts to materialize in H2 2024, that would mean rapid earnings growth and value-generation in the coming years. Looking to risks to this scenario, a weak market demand is the most likely one. I do not expect Kempower’s product-related advantages to vanish anytime soon.

3 gillningar

Thank you for your excellent and comprehensive responses! :slight_smile:

I’m satisfied with your answers. Sometimes I’ve thought that Tesla will quickly dominate, especially with other automotive companies that can do anything with their incredible resources. Well… “the others” would have already joined in if it were easy and particularly profitable for them.

1 gillning

Kempower’s stock has plummeted a lot… just too much or totally justified? :slight_smile:

Anyway… many expect this company’s mega success to continue.

The beginning of the year was challenging for Kempower, partly due to high customer inventory levels and delayed decision-making. However, the company expects the situation to improve during the latter part of the year. Kempower’s CEO Tomi Ristimäki comments in an interview with analyst Pauli Lohi.

Content:

00:00 Intro
00:22 Challenging quarter
01:14 Guidance
02:06 Product portfolio
02:32 Market drivers
04:01 Charging infrastructure for utility vehicles
05:10 Competitive landscape

Bad news, and Kempower’s stock is plummeting at a rapid pace - is the stock still expensive… or is it now cheap? :thinking:

Customer demand clearly weakening more than expected is turning this year’s result negative and pushing achieving reasonable earnings-based valuation levels toward the end of the decade. The electrification of transport and the high competitiveness of the company’s products still enable value creation in the medium term. However, low visibility to growth in the next few years decreases the risk/reward ratio to negative, thus we lower our recommendation to Reduce (was Buy) and the target price to EUR 19 (was EUR 28).

Kempower - Friend or Foe? :thinking:

Kempower will announce its Q2 interim results on Wednesday, July 24 at around 9.30 am EEST. Weak sales and low order intake have been known since the company issued a profit warning on July 11. On this basis, we expect the most important information in Q2 to relate to the possible details behind the decline in sales and the company’s future measures to turn around the result and increase sales.

Many have considered Kempower to be Finland’s upcoming mega company, but recently, it has faced significant difficulties relative to expectations.

An analyst from Inderes interviewed Kempower’s CEO.

Kempower, which issued a profit warning, suffers from a difficult market situation as customers digest their high inventory levels, which were temporarily increased due to the post-pandemic component shortage creating unusually high demand. To defend profitability and cash flow, Kempower aims for significant cost savings in the short to medium term. Kempower’s CEO Tomi Ristimäki commented on the challenging start of the year in an interview with analyst Pauli Lohi.

Topics:

00:00 Introduction 00:13 Difficult quarter 01:09 Outlook for the end of the year 01:44 Significant new customers 02:30 Progress in the United States 03:14 Price competition in the market 04:14 Decline in sales margin 04:42 Cost-saving measures

Here is a fresh and high-quality analysis of a potential future success or failure. :slight_smile:

The demand challenges seen in the charging market stem from over-investment by charging operators in 2022-23. We expect that lower customer inventory levels and the acquisition of new customers will turn Kempower’s sales into growth in 2025, with a clear turnaround in profitability. We find the long-term growth of the target market and the competitive value creation potential of Kempower’s products as attractive at the current share price. We raise our recommendation to Accumulate (previously Reduce) but reduce our target price to EUR 16 (previously EUR 19), due to the increase in the required return, among other factors.